Working Papers | Daniela Campello

“Commodity Price Shocks, Relative Performance and Misattribution of Responsibility for the Economy: Evidence from Survey Experiments” With Cesar Zucco Jr.
- According to several studies, international economic factors influence major political outcomes in resource-rich developing democracies. Voters seem to ignore the impact of exogenous condi- tions and fully attribute economic performance to incumbent competence. In this article, we test informational, cognitive and affective explanations for this behavior in a nationally representative survey and a survey experiment, both conducted in Brazil. Our results indicate that misattribution is more than just an informational problem; we find that few respondents can apply the rules of inference deemed necessary to discount exogenous conditions, and that even individuals that can are unlikely to do so when it involves confronting prior affect for political leaders. We conclude that the prospects for correcting misattribution for economic performance in resource-rich developing democracies are minimal.
“Exogenous Economic Conditions and Irregular Handovers of Power in Latin America” with Cesar Zucco Jr.
- Research on the impact of exogenous conditions on political success reveals that Latin Ameri- can voters often over-attribute economic performance to government decision, punishing and rewarding incumbents for outcomes they do not influence. One shortcoming of this research, however, is that a focus on presidential popularity and elections restricts findings to periods of democratic government. Our paper advances this agenda by investigating how exogenous economic conditions influence “irregular handovers of power,” defined as unscheduled terminations of governments. In contrast with elections and presidential popularity, regular and irregular handovers of power can be observed in both democratic and non-democratic regimes alike, allowing us to examine a much longer time period than previous studies. We find that, at least since the early 1960s, irregular handovers of power in Latin America are far more common under unfavorable international conditions, defined as periods in which international commodity prices are low and/or falling and international interest rates are high and/or rising. We conclude that these variables are strong systemic predictors of political stability in the region, regardless of regime type.
“Entitled to Facts: Blame Attribution for Covid Deaths in Brazil” with Felipe Nunes and Gabriel Madeira.
- It is well-established that partisan beliefs can significantly shape one’s interpretation of reality. However, this research takes a unique perspective by investigating whether objective facts, particularly those highly publicized, such as COVID-19 deaths, can themselves be colored by preexisting political preferences. Drawing on data from three rounds of nationally representative surveys conducted in Brazil, we explore how supporters of the incumbent President updated their factual beliefs, the interpretations of those beliefs, and their opinions regarding the management of the pandemic as real-world conditions evolved. Our findings reveal a compelling narrative, indicating that not only do opinions and inter- pretations differ among partisan groups, but individuals’ knowledge about widely publicized facts also varies in predictable ways. Furthermore, this effect is amplified among those primarily informed by social media channels. This chapter suggest a mechanism between political affiliations, objective facts, and media consumption habits in shaping perceptions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.Abstract Recent scholarship reveals notable divisions within Brazilian agribusiness regarding environmental protection, ranging from fervent deniers to advocates of decarbonization. This article argues that these divergent positions are shaped by the degree to which businesses are exposed to international consumer and foreign government pressures. Agro-industries engaged in global markets often adopt a rhetoric of decarbonization, while producers who sell primarily to trading companies are more likely to downplay or dismiss climate concerns. We then investigate whether this divide is reflected in the voting patterns of legislators affiliated with the Agribusiness Caucus (Frente Parlamentar da Agropecuária, FPA), distinguishing between those funded predominantly by producers and those backed by agro-exporting industries. Surprisingly, we find that FPA-affiliated legislators vote uniformly in favor of policies aligned with denier positions, even when the majority of their funding comes from agro-industrial exporters. If a progressive, green agribusiness sector exists in Brazil, its interests remain underrepresented in Congress.
“Soft Power Diplomacy: Exploring the Relationship Between COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution, Belief in Misinformation, and Public Sentiment Towards China in Latin America” with Francisco Urdinez and Gabriel Madeira.
- Abstract The global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines has provided vaccine-producing countries with opportunities to exhibit their technological capabilities and generosity by distributing vaccines and medical supplies. China, which is widely known as the origin site of the COVID-19 virus, has become a prominent producer of vaccines and protective equipment as part of its efforts to restore its international reputation. This study utilizes original panel data from six Latin American countries and a survey experiment conducted in Brazil and Chile to investigate the impact of receiving a Chinese vaccine on public opinion towards China in the context of belief in fake news about a “Chinese virus.” Our findings demonstrate that the receipt of a Chinese vaccine can moderate the effect of believing in this false information on sentiment towards China. Furthermore, we highlight the critical role played by political leaders in shaping these beliefs. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed a complex interplay between public health, politics, and diplomacy that has significant implications for soft power, particularly in contexts where politically-motivated misinformation is prevalent.Abstract Recent scholarship reveals notable divisions within Brazilian agribusiness regarding environmental protection, ranging from fervent deniers to advocates of decarbonization. This article argues that these divergent positions are shaped by the degree to which businesses are exposed to international consumer and foreign government pressures. Agro-industries engaged in global markets often adopt a rhetoric of decarbonization, while producers who sell primarily to trading companies are more likely to downplay or dismiss climate concerns. We then investigate whether this divide is reflected in the voting patterns of legislators affiliated with the Agribusiness Caucus (Frente Parlamentar da Agropecuária, FPA), distinguishing between those funded predominantly by producers and those backed by agro-exporting industries. Surprisingly, we find that FPA-affiliated legislators vote uniformly in favor of policies aligned with denier positions, even when the majority of their funding comes from agro-industrial exporters. If a progressive, green agribusiness sector exists in Brazil, its interests remain underrepresented in Congress.
“Reluctant Democrats” with Gabriel Madeira and Felipe Nunes.
- Despite a long history of violent military regimes, Latin Americans’ support for democracy can reach surprisingly low levels, particularly during economic crises. Interestingly, the share of citizens that support authoritarian regimes is relatively stable overtime; what varies substantially is the share of those that declare to be indifferent between democracy and authoritarianism. This project aims to shed light on the rationale that underlies those“reluctant democrats”. To this end, I conduct a survey experiment in Brazil, in which I test the hypothesis that discontent citizens may conjecture the benefits of a dictatorship, but rarely consider its costs, in terms of the loss of individual rights. Once reminded of these costs, though, I expect that reluctant democrats turn into unconditional supporters of democracy.Abstract Recent scholarship reveals notable divisions within Brazilian agribusiness regarding environmental protection, ranging from fervent deniers to advocates of decarbonization. This article argues that these divergent positions are shaped by the degree to which businesses are exposed to international consumer and foreign government pressures. Agro-industries engaged in global markets often adopt a rhetoric of decarbonization, while producers who sell primarily to trading companies are more likely to downplay or dismiss climate concerns. We then investigate whether this divide is reflected in the voting patterns of legislators affiliated with the Agribusiness Caucus (Frente Parlamentar da Agropecuária, FPA), distinguishing between those funded predominantly by producers and those backed by agro-exporting industries. Surprisingly, we find that FPA-affiliated legislators vote uniformly in favor of policies aligned with denier positions, even when the majority of their funding comes from agro-industrial exporters. If a progressive, green agribusiness sector exists in Brazil, its interests remain underrepresented in Congress.
“Green Rhetoric, Conservative Votes: Analyzing Brazil’s Agribusiness Caucus on Environmental Legislation” with Beatriz Rey, Joyce Luz, Gabriel Madeira and Fabiano Santos.
- Recent scholarship reveals notable divisions within Brazilian agribusiness regarding environmental protection, ranging from fervent deniers to advocates of decarbonization. This article argues that these divergent positions are shaped by the degree to which businesses are exposed to international consumer and foreign government pressures. Agro-industries engaged in global markets often adopt a rhetoric of decarbonization, while producers who sell primarily to trading companies are more likely to downplay or dismiss climate concerns. We then investigate whether this divide is reflected in the voting patterns of legislators affiliated with the Agribusiness Caucus (Frente Parlamentar da Agropecuária, FPA), distinguishing between those funded predominantly by producers and those backed by agro-exporting industries. Surprisingly, we find that FPA-affiliated legislators vote uniformly in favor of policies aligned with denier positions, even when the majority of their funding comes from agro-industrial exporters. If a progressive, green agribusiness sector exists in Brazil, its interests remain underrepresented in Congress.
“Contingent Populism: Analyzing Lula’s Evolving Rhetoric from 1989 to 2022” with Luiza Duarte and Wallace Cordeiro
- Abstract Recent research on populism tends to disaggregate its dimensions into economic, political and discursive. This paper focuses on the populist discourse, which is tipically described as a discursive style that presents politics as a moral struggle between a virtuous, unified people and a corrupt elite. We follow Hawkins (2009) empirical stratgey and code 183 speeches, covering more than twenty years of Lula’s campaign discourses in Brazilian presidential elections, to ask wether populist elements in Lula’s rhetoric varied over time. We conclude that the candidate’s rhetoric varied significantly in these decades, from a political discourse that can be charaterized as populist in the first three elections Lula ran to the presidency. After 2002, however, Lula’s discourse acquired a more technocratic tone that persisted until very recently and tarted to change again in the presidential election of 2022.